Caribbean holidays on watch as tropical wave moves over the Caribbean
Still being closely observed and monitored the latest tropical wave to be hovering over the Caribbean still poses no significant danger other than cloudy skies and the occasional shower but there's a chance it could evolve into a tropical depression.
Bringing only minimal disruption to Cuba holidyas and Caribbean holidays in general; a tropical wave that has been hovering over the western Caribbean Sea continues to bring showers and storms to parts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands and adjacent waters of the western Caribbean.
There appears to be a bit more low level circulation, but most of the rain is still on the eastern side of this system.
The conditions over the next few days will be conducive for development of this system. Upper level winds will be light and there is plenty of warm water ahead in this system's path.
This tropical wave will continue to move west-northwestward around 10 mph for the next couple of days.
Meteorological experts say that the wave could become a tropical storm by Friday or Saturday.
All weather models project the system will cross Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the next few days. After that, most forecasts still expect the wave to turn northwest and hit the coast near the Texas-Mexico border.
But some models now expect the wave to turn northeast toward Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico close to where BP Plc is trying to clean up its massive oil spill.
The NHC projected the wave, centered between the eastern tip of Honduras and Jamaica, has a high or 60 percent chance of developing over the next day or so, up from 40 percent in a forecast earlier on Thursday.
Specifically, NHC said "upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development and the system could become a tropical depression before it reaches the Yucatan peninsula in a couple of days."
"The high pressure system that has been sending us the easterly winds will also help to protect us from this system, keeping it west of the Florida."
There is about a 40% chance of this system becoming a tropical depression within the next 48 hours. Further development is expected in the coming days.
The exact path through the Gulf of Mexico is still the big question on many people's minds. It all depends on the strength of the high pressure system.
If that high stays strong, the storm could continue more westward toward the Bay of Campeche.
If the high is a little weaker the storm could go toward the northern Gulf coast. Anywhere in between those locations is a possibility.
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